UPDATE: 2025-07-03 07:45 EST BY BRENNAN KLEIN

Novocaine Takes The Lead With A Dismal No. 1 Gross

This article was originally written Saturday AM and has been updated Sunday AM with up-to-date box office projections (in bold), a full chart, and further analysis.

Novocainehas pulled ahead ofBlack Bag, andMickey 17after going head to head in a dismal weekend for the 2025 box office.Novocaine, which is an action comedy starring Jack Quaid, andBlack Bag, which is a Steven Soderberg-directed spy thriller starring Michael Fassbender and Cate Blanchett, are both new wide releases. TheMickey 17releasekicked off the week before. The Bong Joon Ho-directed Robert Pattinson sci-fi movie debuted at No. 1 with a record-breaking $19 million haul that was theParasitedirector’s best in domestic history but still came nowhere close to its $118 million budget.

PerVariety, as of Sunday morning,Novocaineis set to take No. 1 at the domestic box officewith a projected 3-day total of$8.7 million.Black BagandMickey 17, which were both neck and neck as of Saturday, are trailing slightly behind with$7 millionand$7.6 millionrespectively. Although the new action-comedy has become the victor among the three titles, it has become one of the lowest-grossing No. 1 debuts since theaters were reopened following global shutdowns amid the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

Meanwhile,the overall weekend is set to be the worst of 2025, with the entire slate of titles (which also includesCaptain America: Brave New World,Opus,Paddington in Peru, andThe Monkey) projected to earn just$54 millionin domestic theaters, which would sink the weekend beneath the previous lows of Super Bowl weekend ($54.3 million) and Oscar weekend ($54.5 million). See the full domestic Top 5 below:

1

$8.7 million

$8.7 million (weekend 1)

2

$7.6 million

$33.3 million (weekend 2)

3

$7 million

$7 million (weekend 1)

4

$5.2 million

$185 million (weekend 5)

5

$3 million

$3 million (weekend 1)

Outside ofMickey 17,the only other holdover title to still have a place in the Top 5 isCaptain America: Brave New World, which has fallen from No. 2 to No. 4 with a drop of 38% in its fifth weekend. This isn’t bad in terms of chart position, as the firstCaptain Americamovie hit No. 13 during its fifth weekend, whileCivil Warhad fallen to No. 6 andThe Winter Soldierhad matched it at No. 4. However,Brave New Worldis still nowhere close to making enough money to offset its $180 million production budget.

Brave New World’s budget likely means that it needs to earn $450 million worldwide in order to break even.

Meanwhile, with the newLooney TunesmovieThe Day the Earth Blew Upscraping together a No. 5 debut with $3 million, this means thatthree holdover titles have exited the chart. The family movie sequelPaddington in Peruhas fallen roughly 26% from No. 5 to No. 7, the Osgood Perkins horror movieThe Monkeyhas dropped about 36% from No. 4 to No. 8, and the Woody Harrelson survival thrillerLast Breathhas taken the largest drop, around 44%, sinking from No. 3 to No. 10.

They have all made way for yet another debut. At No. 6, the new faith-based dramaThe Last Supperhas earned an opening weekend of $2.8 million. TheA24 horror movieOpus, which stars Ayo Edebiri and John Malkovich but earned a grim 40% Rotten Tomatoes score, wasn’t so lucky,debuting off the Top 10 chart entirely. It landed at No. 12 with just $1 million, underscoring how dismal this weekend was in spite of featuring five new wide releases.

What This Means For Novocaine

Its Box Office Future Is Unclear

Previous projections for theNovocainereleaseshowed the action-comedy set to potentially breach $10 million during its opening weekend with a much clearer lead at the domestic box office. However, this setbackdoes not necessarily mean that it will suffer in theaters. It had a relatively slim budget of just $18 million, which likely places its break-even point somewhere around $45 million. It could still be a stretch for the movie to hit that milestone, but it represents a relatively low risk for distributor Paramount Pictures.

Movies typically need to earn back at least two and a half times their budgets, because theaters keep half of ticket sales and marketing costs are not included in the production budget.

This quiet debut has happened in spite of the fact thatNovocainereviewsare quite solid. The movie has earneda Certified Fresh Rotten Tomatoes score of 81%with an even better audience score of 88%. However, the audience score could mean that the movie will balloon with good word of mouth. Should that be the case, it could follow in the footsteps of Jack Quaid’s January releaseCompanion, a sci-fi thriller that cost $10 million and slowly and steadily made its money back with a $36.5 million gross worldwide after debuting at No. 2 with $9.3 million.

Our Take On The Weekend Box Office

March Could Continue To Be Brutal

The fact thatMickey 17,Novocaine, andBlack Bagare struggling to prop up the domestic box office shows thatthe month is in desperate need of a tentpole. The release of thelive-actionSnow Whiteremakenext weekend will likely provide something of a boost, but even the Disney movie’s projections have been dwindling the nearer its debut comes. Thus, it may not be until the debuts ofA Minecraft Moviein April or Marvel’sThunderbolts*in May that the domestic box office properly rebounds after kicking off 2025 with a strong start that has quickly receded.

Novocaine

Cast

Novocaine follows the story of a successful dentist whose life spirals out of control after becoming entangled with a seductive patient. Facing unexpected challenges and criminal activity, he finds his personal and professional worlds colliding, leading to an urgent fight to preserve both his reputation and sanity.

Black Bag

Black Bag is a Steven Soderbergh directed thriller from Focus Features. Cate Blanchett, Michael Fassbender, Regé Jean Page and Marisa Abela lead the cast, along with Naomie Harris, Pierce Brosnan, and Tom Burke. The story, which is currently under wraps, was written by David Koepp.

Mickey 17

Mickey 17 is a science fiction film following Mickey Barnes, who faces an unusual employment situation with his job demanding a life-threatening level of commitment. The narrative explores themes of sacrifice and survival as Mickey navigates the complex challenges posed by his unique professional obligations.