The2025 Golden Globesnominations have been announced, shaking up the2025 Oscarsrace in the major categories, including Best Picture. Although the importance of the Golden Globes has been debated over the years, as the awards show has been involved in some controversy, it has remained a pivotal part of the awards season. The2025 Golden Globes nominations area huge moment that helps provide new data on the state of the biggest categories at the Oscars. This includesEmilia Pérezleading the way on the film side with ten nominations, strengthening its position withpredicted 2025 Oscar nominations.
While the Golden Globes and Academy Awards are very different award shows that have separate voting groups, rules, and categories, there is a strong history of how the former connects to the latter. Looking back at the last 15 years of both awards shows, the Golden Globes' track record as a precursor to the Oscars is fairly great. The two awards shows never see eye-to-eye in with every category’s nominations or winner, but a Golden Globe nomination goes a long way when it comes to the Best Picture, Best Director, and four acting Oscar categories.
What The Golden Globes Nominations Mean For The 2025 Oscars Best Picture Race
Gladiator II Takes A Hit, While Wicked & Emilia Pérez Keeps Surging
The Golden Globes split its Best Motion Picture award into two categories: Drama and Musical or Comedy. There were six nominees in each category this year.The Brutalist,A Complete Unknown,Conclave,Dune: Part Two,Nickel Boys, andSeptember 5earned nominations in Best Motion Picture - Drama, whileAnora,Challengers,Emilia Pérez,A Real Pain,The Substance, andWickedearned nominations in Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy. Since there are only ten Best Picture slots at the Oscars, at least two of these films will miss the cut. History suggests there will be more, though.
In the last 15 years - which is when the Academy changed Best Picture to have between five and ten nominees before mandating ten nominees in 2020 -there has only been one time when all Best Picture nominees were also Golden Globe nominees. That lone instance came last year. Otherwise, it is common for Oscar voters to acknowledge two films that the Golden Globes did not. This typically comes with foreign language films joining the Best Picture lineup. For example,Parasitewon Best Picture but wasn’t even nominated in either Best Motion Picture category at the Golden Globes.
Looking at the twelve films nominated by the Golden Globes,ChallengersandThe Substanceare most likely to be left out of Best Picture. But there should also be other movies that miss the cut.September 5,A Real Pain, andDune: Part Twocould be among the other titles in jeopardy of missing out on a2025 Oscars Best Picture nomination. The presence of expected frontrunners likeAnora,The Brutalist,Conclave, andEmilia Pérezonly solidifies their contending status. Meanwhile,Sing Singcould be one of the movies that missed Golden Globes but still gets the biggest Oscar nomination.
Emilia Pérezarguably comes out as the biggest winner when it comes to its Oscars standing. The fact thatEmilia Pérezreceived the most Golden Globes nominations for any movieis a sign of how much people like it. It should win in at least a few of these categories. If it manages to actually win Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy, thenEmilia Pérezcould find itself as the frontrunner for Best Picture - something Netflix has long been chasing.
Ridley Scott’s star-studded action sequel is exactly the type of movie the Golden Globes are more likely to favor
Conversely, the Best Picture aspirations ofGladiator IItake a hit. There’s a chance that the movie could be one of few Best Picture nominees that the Golden Globes ignored, but Ridley Scott’s star-studded action sequel is exactly the type of movie the Golden Globes are more likely to favor. The fact that it couldn’t even get a nomination here could sink its Best Picture hopes. That helps putWickedandDune: Part Twoin a better position to be the blockbusters that emerge in Best Picture.
What The Golden Globes Nominations Mean For The 2025 Oscars Best Director Race
Denis Villeneuve’s Golden Globes Snub Is A Big Deal
The Golden Globes' Best Director nominees in 2025 include Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Bradey Corbet (The Brutalist), Corealie Fargeat (The Substance), and Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine As Light). While the Golden Globes give six nominations in the category, the Oscars only give out five. However, there’s only been one time in the last 15 years when all Oscar nominees were also Golden Globes nominees. It’s fairly regular for the Oscars to have one or two nominees not nominated by the Golden Globes.
That should be good news for Audiard, Baker, Berger, and Corbet, as all four were previously considered names in the mix for aBest Director 2025 Oscar nomination. Their positions are strengthened now, leaving one spot up for grabs if Oscar voters give each a nod. One of these four is also now likely to win the Oscar, asthe Best Director winner has been a Golden Globe nominee in each of the last 15 years. Fargeat’s nomination is a pleasant surprise, as is Kapadia’s, even if they’re still Oscar longshots.
If at least one Best Director Oscar nominee will be missing from the Golden Globes lineup, that’s a silver lining for Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two), Ridley Scott (Gladiator II), Jon M. Chu (Wicked), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown), RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys), and others. Chu has been rising along withWicked, butVilleneuve’s snub from the Golden Globes is concerningfor him. He was nominated for Best Director by the Golden Globes for the firstDunebut was snubbed by the Academy. He must flip the outcome now to avoid missing a Best Director Oscar nomination again.
What The Golden Globes Nominations Mean For The 2025 Oscars Best Actor Race
The Best Actor Race Is Further Solidified
The Golden Globes nominations for Best Actor are also divided by genre between Drama and Musical or Comedy. With six nominations in each category, the 2025 lineup is star-studded. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), and Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) are the nominees in Drama, while Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Gabriel Labelle (Saturday Night), Jesse Plemons (Kinds of Kindness), Glen Powell (Hit Man), and Sebastian Stan (A Different Man) are the nominees in Musical or Comedy.
There are a few pleasant surprises among the nominees, but the direct impact on the2025 Oscars Best Actor raceis more so how it reaffirms the current standings. Brody, Chalamet, Craig, Domingo, and Fiennes have been thought of as five of the biggest contenders, so all of their places in Best Actor - Motion Picture Drama solidify that they are the names to beat. However, in the last 15 years, there have only been eight times when the five Best Actor Oscar nominees were all Golden Globe nominees. That suggests someone else - like John David Washington (The Piano Lesson) - could sneak in.
What Colman Domingo’s First Sing Sing Award Win Means For The 2025 Oscars: Best Actor Race Impact & Gotham Awards History
Colman Domingo officially is an awards winner for Sing Sing thanks to the Gotham Awards. It has a direct impact on the 2025 Oscars Best Actor race.
Sebastian Stan’s Oscar chances improve with his dual Golden Globe nominations, but he will still need to unseat one of Brody, Chalamet, Craig, Domingo, and Fiennes to break into the actual nominees list. However, history indicates that one of these six men will be the Best Actor Oscar winner. In the last 15 years, the Oscar winner for Best Actor has matched the Golden Globes winner 12 times, and they were nominated in two of the other three. Michael Keaton’s win forBirdmanis the only exception. That puts Brody, Chalamet, Craig, Domingo, Fiennes, and Stan in a great spot.
What The Golden Globes Nominations Mean For The 2025 Oscars Best Actress Race
Cynthia Erivo & Nicole Kidman Get An Oscars Boost
Just like for Best Actor, the Golden Globes nominated six performances in the Drama and Musical or Comedy categories for Best Actress. The list of nominees includes Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here), and Kate Winslet (Lee) in Drama, while Amy Adams (Nightbitch), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), and Zendaya (Challengers) in Musical or Comedy.
Mikey Madison’s Oscar Chances For Winning Best Actress For Anora: Her 2025 Odds & Detailed Historical Comparison
Anora has put Mikey Madison at the heart of the Best Actress Oscar race in 2025, but the odds and historical comparisons paint two different outcomes.
The Golden Globes are a consistent precursor for the Oscars with Best Actress when it comes to the nominees. Eight times out of the last 15 years, the Oscar nominees were all Golden Globe nominees, and there’s only been one instance where they had two or more differences otherwise. This strengthens the case forpredicted 2025 Oscars Best Actress nomineeslike Jolie, Madison, and Gascón. Importantly,every Best Actress Oscar winner of the last 15 years has been a Golden Globe nominee, so that helps shape who could win this year.
This is good for rising contenders in the Best Actress Oscars race like Erivo and Kidman. It could even help bolster the case for someone like Kate Winslet if she can win the Best Actress - Motion Picture Drama award at the Golden Globes. Overall, the Oscars are historically more likely to align with the performances nominated in Drama at the Golden Globes. But with several years having one Best Actress nominee who was left out by the Globes, Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun), Emma Stone (Kinds of Kindness), and Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths) could still get an Oscar nomination.
What The Golden Globes Nominations Mean For The 2025 Oscars Best Supporting Actor Race
The Best Supporting Actor category at the Golden Globes brought nominations for six individuals, as the movies are not split by genre. The nominees are Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), and Denzel Washington (Gladiator II). The thing to note here is thatthe Oscars and Globes rarely agree on the entire list of five Best Supporting Actor nominees, as it only happened three times in the last 15 years.
This should mean that the Oscars deliver at least one different nominee in Best Supporting Actor than what the Golden Globes have done.The name most likely to jump in is Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), who has been in a great spot to earn his first Oscar nomination. It would be a surprise if he was snubbed, which means that at least two individuals nominated here will not be among the Best Supporting Actor lineup at the Oscars.
Culkin and Washington are best positioned to get Oscar nominations among this group, as they are the predicted frontrunners to win. Norton, Pearce, and Borisov are attached to movies with Best Picture aspirations, which helps their cases, but any of them - plus Strong - could miss if Maclin gets in. While the Best Supporting Actor Oscar nomination lineup could still shift in the coming weeks, the last 15 winners have been Globe nominees, strengthening Culkin and Washington’s odds specifically.
What The Golden Globes Nominations Mean For The 2025 Oscars Best Supporting Actress Race
Ariana Grande’s Oscar Nomination Chances Look Even Better
The Golden Globes also gave out six nominations in Best Supporting Actress. Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), and Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) were the ones to become nominees. Many of these names were already expected to be in the Oscars race for the same category.
The question that emerges is which of these six actresses will be in the five nominees for the Best Supporting Actress Oscar. The Academy has only had two years when the nominees were all Globes nominees, and it hasn’t happened since 2017. It is quite common for one or more names to get an Oscar nomination after being overlooked by the Globes.Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), and Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys) are a few names who Academy voters could recognize, but that means knocking some of the Globe nominees out of the picture.
Saldaña andGrande are in the best positions to get Oscar nominationsat this stage, as Grande’s Glinda is a bright spot inWicked. Gomez, Jones, and Rossellini have all been in contention previously, with Gomez arguably the most divisive of the options.Qualley’s Golden Globes nomination is well-deserved, but it would still be a major surprise if she got an Oscar nomination forThe Substance. This could leave her and Gomez as the2025 Golden Globesnominees who aren’t in the Best Supporting Actress lineup for the2025 Oscars. Even Rossellini could miss if enough alternative performances gain momentum.
