Kieran Culkin is all but guaranteed to win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025Oscarsfor his performance inA Real Pain, and when he does, it’ll break an Oscars streak that goes all the way back to 2011. Culkin appears alongside writer-director Jesse Eisenberg inthe cast ofA Real Pain. They play David and Benji, two Jewish American cousins who embark on a tour of Holocaust sites in Poland to honor their late grandmother.

Culkin’s hilarious and heartbreaking turn as Benji has earned him Best Supporting Actor awards left and right, including a nomination at the Oscars.Culkin’s Oscar nomination has been met with criticisms of category fraud, since he’s more of a co-lead with Eisenberg than a true supporting player. But in spite of these criticisms — andin spite of stiff competition from Guy Pearce, Edward Norton, and Culkin’sSuccessionco-star Jeremy Strong — Culkin is still the frontrunner to take home the award, and it’ll break a long-standing streak.

Kieran Culkin looking sad in A Real Pain

Kieran Culkin Will Be The First Best Supporting Actor Winner Not From A Best Picture Nominee Since 2011

Christopher Plummer Was The Last Best Supporting Actor Winner For A Non-Best Picture Nominee

If and when Culkin wins the Oscar for Best Supporting Actor, he’ll be the first person to win the award for a movie that wasn’t nominated for Best Picture since way back in 2011. At the 84th Academy Awards,Christopher Plummer won Best Supporting Actor for his turn alongside Ewan McGregor and Mélanie Laurent in the Mike Mills dramaBeginners, which wasn’t nominated for Best Picture(or any other awards, for that matter). Every Best Supporting Actor winner since then has been from a Best Picture nominee.

The last three Best Supporting Actor winners — Robert Downey, Jr., Ke Huy Quan, and Troy Kotsur — were all from movies that won Best Picture.

The Oscars Poster Featuring an Oscars Statue Standing in front of a curtain

The last three Best Supporting Actor winners — Robert Downey, Jr., Ke Huy Quan, and Troy Kotsur — were all from movies that won Best Picture. Every other winner since Plummer’sBeginnersvictory, from Mahershala Ali forMoonlightto Sam Rockwell forThree Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, has been for a movie nominated for Best Picture. SinceA Real Painwasn’t nominated for Best Picture, Culkin will repeat Plummer’s specific feat.

Kieran Culkin’s Precursor Sweep Ensures He’ll Win The Best Supporting Actor Oscar Despite A Real Pain’s Best Picture Snub

Culkin Has Swept Awards Season

DespiteA Real Pain’s Best Picture snub, Culkin is pretty much guaranteed to win Best Supporting Actor. He’s won in that category at almost all the precursor awards ceremonies.Culkin’s recent win at the SAG Awardshas pretty much confirmed that the race is over and the Oscar is his. There have been plenty of surprises at theOscarsin the past, so there’s a very slim chance that the award could go to someone else, but at this point, there’s no reason to bet against Culkin.

https://www.oscars.org/